NISDA Security Conference 2005 Inaugural Address and Gen. B. C. Joshi Memorial Lecture

on "ROLE OF THE IAF IN THE CHANGING REGIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT" by

Air Chief Marshal S. P. Tyagi, PVSM, AVSM, VSM, ADC, Chief of the Air Staff



Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is an honour and privilege for me to address this august gathering this morning. Today, I am happy to be with you to share my views on the role of the IAF in the changing regional security environment.

GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

International World Order

1. The last decade and a half has been characterized by many changes. The end of the cold war and the 9/11 terrorist attack have brought about a greater international convergence on global security issues and challenges. While significant differences of perception remain, there has been a change in diplomatic and power equations around the world. Old confrontations have given way to new equations and alignments. Globalization aided by technology in linking economies and is seriously challenging the traditional ‘nation-state’ concept. Economic and national interests, rather than ideology, are shaping international interests. Increased disparity in economic and military power amongst the big and small states has resulted in a large number of dissatisfied states. It has brought about changes in the realistic understanding of inter state relations.

2. While the world is presently uni-polar, this I think, is a transient stage. In a decade or two, the world order will stabilize into a multi-polar environment. Major players will be the US, EU, Brazil, china, Russia, Japan and India. The war on Iraq has altered many equations in the Middle East influencing our own foreign policy. Similarly, proliferation and standoff over Iran and North Korea have affected several diplomatic alignments. What is of direct concern to us is the Asian region. The last few decades have witnessed the rise of Asia as a major power centre in the new world order, an order that is characterized by ‘geo-economics’ overshadowing ‘geo-politics’. This area is also characterized by being the sole region with a nuclear flash point, a region in which three nuclear capable nations have been active adversaries for decades.

South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region

3. India has a geographical advantage by its prominent position in South Asia. We are a rapidly growing economic power that enjoys strategic relationships with several countries. Besides, we are a recognized hub of expertise in IT software, and have a substantial English speaking populace. This gives us a unique opportunity to play an important role in the emerging global order with special reference to the South Asian region. We stand in this region as a beacon of democracy amongst a multitude of human diversity and economic disparity. In terms of size, population, levels of development, technology and military power, we are far ahead of our neighbours. This has in the past, resulted in apprehensions of hegemonic tendencies in the minds of some of our neighbours. We need to dispel these fears through confidence building measures.

4.Over the last two decades, India has recorded an average annual growth rate of 6%,. It is now the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. The size (GDP) of the economy has doubled since 1991, and is expected to redouble by 2010. this has made our country more and more energy hungry. Beyond our immediate region, we have vital interests in the Gulf and South-east Asia. Being an important source of energy, the Gulf forms part of our strategic neighbourhood. Besides this, it is a home to over 3.5 million Indians, and a major trading partner.

5.The requirement of strategic space to influence this region has long been the policy of major powers. As a result, South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) have seen an increase in global activity in the recent years. The IOR has been a recognized vortex of activity for decades. It holds a bulk of the world’s oil, gas, minerals and fishery resources, and is thus an attractive venue for many players. It is in this backdrop that India’s strategic location in South Asia and the Indian Ocean is of paramount importance. The need to guarantee security of energy sources and sea-lanes in the IOR would therefore be prerequisite to ensure unhampered growth of our economy. One can therefore surmise that our areas of security concern have expanded far beyond the geographical borders of our nation state. An area that encompasses Sumatra to the African Coast on the east-west axis, and from Central Asia including the CAR countries to the Antarctica on the north-south axis.

Threat Assessment

6. Whilst there have been several positive developments in our relations with Pakistan over the last year-and-a-half, we cannot assume that the peace process is firmly entrenched. Terrorist threats and attacks continue to be regular a phenomena indicating that the infrastructure for terrorism in Pakistan and POK is still very active. Pakistan continues to make repeated and unacceptable demands besides raising the Kashmir issue whenever it can. Fortunately, our own standing in the international forum as a responsible nuclear power with an impeccable record in proliferation continues to grow. We are demonstrating a growing capability to shoulder regional and global responsibilities.

7. China, while not an immediate threat, has a booming economy and is rapidly modernizing her armed forces. She is more likely to view us as a regional economic threat, and perhaps will be forced to attempt to stem our growth and influence in this region. China’s strategic encirclement of out country is already well under way and this would only lead to more problems for us in future. Another aspect to consider is that China would not like to see its Asian peers, Japan and India, joining the UN Security Council’s permanent membership. Thus in opposing Tokyo’s bid, China would automatically ensure that India’s candidacy is denied.

8. In an environment of uncertainties as regards our neighbours, India has to cater for the full spectrum of thereat, from Low Intensity Conflicts (LIC) and proxy wars to all-out wars and even nuclear wars. There has been no linear concept of escalation in this region. There is a need to strike a balance between credibility of deterrence through threats, and risk management through implementation of safeguards. Prolonged hostility has generated a greater potential for misunderstanding. We need to maintain a high level of vigilance and defence preparedness. Our preparedness would need to take into account all sorts for contingencies, including out of area operations, for containment of foreign influence in the South Asia and IOR region.

9. Another area of concern that is fast influencing military strategy is ‘non-traditional’ threats to national security. Threats to human ecology are fast expanding. Issues like water scarcity; rising population and its migration; global dependency on energy resources, will all give rise to new areas of conflict. Our forces would also have to deal with degradation of strategic security infrastructure caused by unforeseen natural calamities. We are witness to the recent earthquake in the border areas of J&K. Similarly, the floods that ravaged many of our states, the snow blockade in J&K and the Tsunami, have all seen the armed forces being drawn into play a very active and dominant role in providing relied operations. Our involvement also extends to reaching out to other countries in times of crisis as was done during the Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina. In catering for these contingencies, the armed forces need a comprehensive joint approach to be able to defend not only national interests, but also exercise their influence on traditional and non-traditional threats. In consonance with the perceived requirement, the need to equip our forces with tools of strategic reach is essential.

India’s Response
10. Our country’s response to external threats and challenges has always been restrained, measured and moderate, consistent with out peaceful outlook and reputation as a peace-loving country. Pursuit of economic goals must be our top priority. We are living in a era of globalization, and would perforce need to forge strategic partnerships with major players. Whilst diplomacy must remain our foremost means of dealing with challenges related to security, there could be no worthwhile development without security. In other words we need to retain a strong military power. Therefore, it is essential that we identify our national security strategy, from which would flow our military strategy to safeguard our national interests. There is thus, a pressing need for a clearly annunciated National Strategic Vision for the armed forces spanning the next 15-20 years.

IAF’S INVOLVEMENT IN WARS SINCE INDEPENDENCE

11. Having covered the geopolitical and security environment, I will now dwell on IAF’s role in this security matrix. I will begin by tracing the role played by the IAF in the wars and campaigns since independence.

12. War in 1947-48. In 1947, the Pakistani invading guerrilla forces had reached the outskirts of the capital Srinagar by the time the ruler acceded to India on 26 Oct 1947. On the same day, air force and civilian Dakotas flew troops from Delhi to Srinagar. Timely use of non-combat air power played a crucial role in relocating ground forces, which were subsequently able to push back the invading guerrilla forces. Similarly, the attempt to capture Leh by the Pakistan Army war thwarted by timely, and what has become a legendary airlift, by Air Commodore “Baba” Meher Singh.

13. 1962 War with China. The debacle in 1962 is well known. This is the only war that we lost after Independence. Significantly, this also happens to be the only war in which combat air power was never utilized. Perhaps, if combat air power were used, the outcome of the war could have been different.

14. 1965 War. In the 1965 War, the air force came into play only on the 01st of Sept when Pakistan launched a major land offensive with air support in the Jammu sector. India was caught unprepared as the Pakistani armour thrust towards the key town of Akhnoor. The Indian Army asked for air support. Our Mystere aircraft were able to stop the armour well short of Akhnoor. From then on, the guerrilla war was completely overtaken by regular war between the two militaries that finally ended in a ceasefire. Once again air power has played an important role in warding off Pak’s offensive.

15. 1971 Operations. In the 1971 operations, the IAF was able to achieve air superiority in the Eastern Sector within a matter of few days. The Tangail battalion drop followed this. Air power was thus put to good use.

16. Kargil Operations. During the Kargil operations, supply camps and a number of point targets were very effectively put out of actions by use of air power. Besides this, the force and performance ratios of the PAF and IAF actually deterred Pakistan from bringing its air force to support its army under attack by the IAF.

17. From the experiences gathered in our wars, as well as from wars fought in the last couple of decades, it is very apparent that air power has a crucial role to play. Before proceeding further, it would be prudent to understand the characteristics of future conflicts, and from this, define the role that the IAF as a future aerospace power, has to play.

CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE CONFLICTS

18. Future conflicts will require a high level of pre-emptive diplomacy, joint planning, surgical and precise operations, and active support by the media as well as local populace. Large-scale wars are very unlikely, and we can expect short duration, limited conflicts; limited in terms of time, forces used, objectives and geographical extent. We can rest assured that international pressure and threat of sanctions will terminate conflicts in a reasonably short time frame. Since time is limited in such clashes, it is essential that we need to act fast, well before the international community steps in to stop the war. Besides this, the ever-increasing media awareness and access to remote areas in the shortest possible time due to modern technology, has put added pressure on the military for transparency in their operations. Globalization also, has made nations more interdependent. It has ensured that conflicts, especially those with a military dimension, will impact even those countries that are not directly involved. In addition, economic compulsions have now exposed industries, civilian establishments and other targets of strategic value to the mercy of destruction by a determined enemy. Collateral damage can change the sentiment of the world, thus affecting popular support of the masses.

19. Given the changing environment, the IAF of today will have to adapt itself to the needs of a different tomorrow. While the focus of out Nation is still Pak centric and centered to our borders, this will need to change to encompass our newly defined and extended strategic borders. A degree of status quo exists on the borders, which are mainly brought about by terrain imperatives. This is unlikely to undergo much change, and we are already well prepared to meet any tactical contingencies that may arise in these areas. We should therefore, re-orientate our strategies to cater for future conflicts based on our perceived threats to our strategic interests. Aerospace power can provide us with all the necessary tools to deter/ conduct operations in the future.

ROLE OF AEROSPACE POWER
20. Today, with the availability of very accurate air-launched weapons and improved intelligence, it can be expected that there will be precise targeting with minimal collateral damage. The requirement of speed, accuracy and lethality are the hallmarks of aerospace power. Apart from the ability to act quickly, aerospace power is ubiquitous and has the reach to strike deep and over a wide range of targets in a large geographical area. Aerospace power permits pre-emption and coercion and is a prime instrument for undertaking these tasks. Coercion requires political will, for example, enforcing no-fly zones. As regards the pre-emptive option, it will pay rich dividends, and should be exercised to exploit the existing conventional asymmetry available with us.

21. There is no pre-requisite to concentrate mass as in the earlier days, which allowed the opposition, time to plan a defence that in turn resulted in a linear and sequential battle. Technology now permits parallel warfare, which allows simultaneously hitting of a number of targets in a well-orchestrated manner, across the length and breadth of the country. The aim would be to disrupt / dislocate the enemy’s centers, civilian or military targets, etc. The Gulf War of 1990 presented a model script on the application of such a concept. In this backdrop it can be seen that aerospace power has truly come of age since the 1990s and has played a very dominant role in contributing to victory in the wars fought ever since. Therefore, the deterrence value, lethality, cost-effectiveness, time sensitivity, and inherent flexibility are the characteristics of aerospace power. As such, these characteristics are best suited for playing a dominant and decisive role in future conflicts. What therefore are the implications for the IAF in the changing security environment of today?

PHILOSOPHY OF AIR OPERATIONS

22. Our strategy for air operations will necessarily flow from our military strategy. We strongly subscribe to the requirement for joint operations. This would translate to joint planning and execution at every possible level. This would automatically result in synergised joint operations. As far as the Air Force is concerned; we are fully geared for meeting the requirements of a ‘cold start’. We have already drawn up our plans for this type of operations and have successfully put them to test in recent exercises. We have earmarked certain fighter Sqns as ‘Core Sqns’. These Sqns are maintained at a readiness state that permits them to go into operation with only a few hours notice. Our war-orders and war-plans have been amended to cater for rapid induction and employment of these forces. Of course, we are aware that a lot depends upon whether we have the political will to take the decision to launch operations first. Nevertheless, we are training for such a requirement.

FUTURE PATH FOR THE IAF

Visions and Net Centric Warfare (NCW)

23. Aerospace power is synonymous with air force. Getting down to specifics, first and foremost is that the IAF has a vision that is linked with the vision of the country as a whole. As India grows as an economic power, it is inevitable that the Air Force will grow along with it. We believe that warfare is gradually moving into another dimension and that is Space. So our Air Force’s vision is to get into space. We are already using Space for communications, reconnaissance and many other things. Everyone is talking about network-centric warfare. The future war is going to be lethal and fast paced. This requires faster decision making and faster implementation of decisions. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) envisages the integration in information from all sensors and making it available as required and whenever required. This will provide a very high level of situational awareness, which is an essential ingredient while prosecuting the war. NCW functions at the operational level, but impacts at the strategic level as well.

Exploitation of Space
24. Space based capabilities have perhaps had the most profound effect on air-power. It has enabled unprecedented compression of the ‘sensor-to-shooter’ time. This allows ‘time sensitive targeting’ almost anywhere on the globe. Exploitation of space, besides enhancing safety in air operations, exponentially adds to the speed, reach and flexibility of air power. Integration of space dimension into air operations is essential for the IAF to attain strategic capability.

25. If space power needs to be exploited we must have a dedicated organization at the earliest to plan, steer and execute tasks to promote military applications. Whilst this organization must have representation from the three services and scientists, we believe that this Command must logically lie with the Air Force. Air Power and Space Power need to be meshed into one as Aero Space Power. The IAF therefore, strongly subscribes to the formation of a Space Command to exploit military usage of space.

26. Presently, out (IAF) usage of space-based assets is restricted to gathering of strategic intelligence, communications, weather, and for navigational assistance (GPS). With the introduction of cruise missiles (BrahMos), the entire operations would be fairly dependent on space-based assets. The operations would involve gathering intelligence information, ascertaining target location, command and control of the weapon system, weather assessments, launch, enroute navigation, precision attack and damage assessment.

27. The IAF is in the process of looking at a data-link project to network all the airborne platforms and sensors with the ground sensors. The air defence network is being strengthened with modern sensors and weapon systems that include the AWACS, Aerostats and Air Defence missiles. All these force multipliers would substantially increase the potency, capability and reach of the Indian Air Force in the coming years.

FORCE STRUCTURING OF THE AIR FORCE
Need to Maintain Numbers
28. The IAF’s force requirement is structured to meet two possible contingencies. The first contingency caters for a full conflict with Pakistan and a dissuasive posture against China. The second contingency is of simultaneous conflict with Pakistan and China, with a capability to hold Pakistan and defend against China. Whilst there is a general talk of downsizing and modernization, the Air Force still needs the numbers. The number of fighter Sqns has been gradually declining due to obsolescence and accidents over the past few years. To address this impending shortfall in the force level, the IAF has proposed to acquire an additional 126 medium multi-role combat as (MMRCA). The ac that fit the bill for our requirement are of the Mirage 2000 Mk II, F-16, Gripen and MiG 29 M2 class. We are looking at a transfer of technology (ToT) clause and sharing of software source code.

29. As a long-term strategy, we are planning to reduce the type of fighter ac on our inventory to three to four types. These would be long range/heavy weight fighters, medium range/medium weight multi-role fighters and lightweight low cost fighter ac. In the first category, the IAF has already procured the SU-30, and in the third category the indigenous LCA would be acquired. Thus, the 126 fighter ac we are planning to procure need to be in the medium range/medium weight and multi-role category.

Upgrades

30. To obviate the need for purchasing expensive hardware, we have also gone in for the low cost option of upgrading our existing aircraft. Up gradation of the MiG 21, MiG 27 and Jaguar ac is underway while the MiG 29 upgrade is in the pipeline.

Transport Aircraft

31.Our present fleet consists mainly of AN-32 and HS-748 ac in the below 5 Ton payload class, and the IL-76 in the 40 Ton class. Thus there is clearly a gap in the aircraft capability between 5 Tons and 40 Tons payload. Our requirement is 45 ac in this class. HAL is exploring the possibility of joint production of a transport ac of the 15-20 Ton payload capacities. We need to increase our strategic lift capability to cater for out of area contingencies (OOAC) as well as relief during natural calamities.

Flight Refueller Aircraft
32. In our drive to enhance the reach of our aircraft, the IAF has acquired six aerial refuellers. We have since utilized these aerial refuellers to stage our fighter aircraft to Alaska, South Africa and France. These aircraft can also double up as cargo planes thereby enhancing our strategic lift capability. Our plans envisage that out future acquisitions of fighter, helicopter and transport aircraft will all be capable of being aerially refueling. We have immediate plans of acquiring six additional flight refueling aircraft. These aerial refuellers have given us global reach and a choice of options.

Helicopters

33. The IAF is processing a case for procurement of 80 Med Lift Heptrs. With induction of these helicopters, the IAF will be able to meet all the tasks as well as support UN Peace Keeping Operations. Acquisition of these additional MLH is in keeping with the overall plan for enhancement of ‘strategic reach’ of the IAF.

Indigenous Development

34. We are conscious of the undisputed need to be self-sufficient and therefore the requirement of promoting indigenous development. Despite slippages in the LCA programme, it is hoped that we would be able to operationalise two Sqns by the end of the 11th Plan. On the indigenous front, the IAF fully supports the involvement of the Public and Private sectors in these endeavors. However, there is a pressing need to adhere to time frames especially for aviation related technology, least we face obsolescence right at the time of induction. In this regard, we would like to see time-bound and quality systems being produced, which will interest buyers even in the international market.

RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS
35. Before concluding, I would like to briefly highlight some of the IAF’s achievements in the past one-year.

36. Relief Operations. During the number of occasions in aid to civil authorities, the IAF, since the Tsunami disaster, has airlifted over 2,300 tone and 55,000 passengers. This has been unprecedented.

37. International Exercises. The IAF has of late successfully trained with the air forces of USA, France, Singapore and South Africa. From these exercises in which our air warriors displayed great professionalism, we were able to gain valuable operational lessons and experiences.

38. UN Peace Keeping Operations. The IAF is currently manning three UN Peace Keeping Operations, two at Congo, and one in Sudan. The performance of the contingents has earned the nation accolades in the international arena.

CONCLUSION

39.The strength and credibility With induction and operationalisation of all the stated procurements, the IAF would be even in a far better position to deal the entire spectrum of threats, as also look after our extended strategic boundaries. Presently, we have the capability to deal with limited out-of-area contingencies. With exploitation of space-based resources, we would enhance our operational capability whilst simultaneously increasing our deterrent value.

40. We are currently focusing on training and development of human resources, as we are fully aware that it is the man behind the machine that will ultimately dictate our performance in any operation. Our endeavor is to improve the teeth to tail ratio, and in this regard we are looking at measures to increase productivity and cost consciousness.

41. Finally, I can say with a great sense of satisfaction and due humility that each time the Indian Air Force was entrust with a responsibility – it delivered – whatever the odds. These tasks have been achieved due to professionalism of the highest order, dedication to duty, and ‘esprit-de-corps’ amongst the Air Warriors.

Jai Hind!